Thursday, June 17, 2021

TL9.0 to TL9.2 Modularization Manufacturing

Taylorism and Scientific Manufacturing is in TL5
While FORD and his improvements in the Assembly Line is in TL6
Quality Management: Deming, TPS, Lean is TL7
Early CNC machines are TL7, 
3d Printing,  is TL8,  
TL9 is the Modularization of Manufacturing. 

Problem Statement:

Total Cost of Ownership of a Particular Range of Manufacturing is too expensive. By Too expensive at the current business models, many markets are underserved and cannot experiment or fill niches because it's too expensive to use current methods to satisfy that market. If the starting Capital can be reduced then more innovation can be achieved and NEW ideas can arise and challenge the existing paradigms. 

Studies in LEAN, TPS, QMS and AGILE. 

One of the MAIN problems of Older Organizations is the Bias and Assumptions that are far greater than any one person can contain. A collection of Biases and Assumptions creates a lot of Inertia - particularly the inertia to stay the same. 

Its easier to Startup or Buy A Startup, buy a Competing Culture that has most of our core values but approaches it a different way. the Existing Market Leaders will buy their competition, but cannot resist dismantling them and cannibalizing them instead of using them as a seed by which to grow. 

Why hasn't more Vehicles and Manufacturing become Modularized? 

You see the Trend in CPUs with RISC and the need for Right to Repair and Open Standards. Imagine Modular Single-Board-Computers (Like Rasberry Pis and the other SBCs that came in its wake) being the basic component. Imagine not buying a New Desktop, but buying a Mother Board that SLOTS in a number of SBCs that meet an OPEN REPAIR standard. 

the PCIE slots slot in Specialized SBCs: adding power or changing specializations as needed. 

Now for VEHICLES and APPLIANCES, we have a Framework: BODIES/CHASIS and of course its Internal Parts. What I'm "World-Building" is that Enough CNC Machines, FREECAD users, and designers can build a small Company that can create Appliances for a CITY and fulfills most of its lifecycle requirements. 

VEHICLES Manufacturing can be achieved in the same way. CELL manufacturing has been discussed in Operations Management and Research - the Assembly Line exists because there is a single product that needs to be produced and thus the Steps are laid out in the line. But in a highly diverse and adaptable type of manufacturing Cellular approach requires more Indipedented, high initiative, and more pro-active and skilled personnel - the CNC machines and new Materials help but its basically Taking Deming and TPS's and LEAN's human focus to a much higher level. Your shop flow personnel are not just tradesmen, but have the mastery of a professional engineer. They can plan and prepare like a MILITARY but they IMPROVISE on the drop of a hat. Basically what Chris Hadfield talks about in this Vanity Fair Interview

Modularization or Standardization reduces waste by removing the UNCERTAINTY and SCRATCH building that happens by having Optimized sub-processes. Processes and Functions have been reduced to the most versatile, economic, and to have a particular range of uses. 

In the Setting
  • 2010's the Maker Movement and Open Workshops 
  • 2020's the Reusable Launcher makes 0G Manufacturing more plausible. 
  • 2025 Micro and Modular Factories like Arrival Enter the market. 
  • 2025 Satelite Internet is Affordable at 100usd/mo at 200mbps anywhere around the world - with Oneweb Starlink and China's Constellation allowing high Tech infra anywhere. 
  • 2030 More Modular Micro Factories are adopted, You see them being built in China and India. China, India, and Japan ventures to ASEAN, USAN and Africa Group. India (example is the Mahindra Group) and China 
  • 2035 the Catch up of Developing countries like Indonesia and Philippines to the rest of southeast Asia (the 20-year gap shortens to 15-year gap). Vietnam, Thailand, and Malasia cooling. The Demographics of skilled labor and Comparative advantage and trade - major environmental and economic setbacks created more opportunities for some of these countries as some Gov'ts attempt a turnaround. 
  • 2035 Micro Modular Factories raise the level of technology in Developing Countries - Countries who lost the major Production to other countries can now have Local production (Example Vietnam becoming the manufacturing hub in South East Asia , the other Countries can now have a smaller car and heavy industry manufacturing).  
  • 2050 Localized Manufacturing. the Maker movement is not just in Developed countries - maker spaces and some franchising of such Workshops have begun to spring up. From bootleg repairs and Open Standard Repairs - the E-wastes have been greatly reduced and being reversed - Landfills are being scrounged for E-waste. This varies depending on the country, but many developing countries have rapidly growing Local Manufacturing. 
  • 2080 Low Earth Orbit Manufacturing 

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The current Project is a Hard Scifi Cepheus Engine Compatible Setting inspired by Daniel Suarez Delta-VArtemis and the Martian by Andy WeirExpanseSeveneves by Neal Stephenson. Making adventures in the Near Future - 2050+ based on my work experience in a Developing Country (Philippines) and how the world will be very different and much the same. 

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