OSR 3 attack dart vs 2 attack bow vs 1d8 dmge melee

Preamble on Game Mechanics and Design

if a mechanic in the game system works a particular way it affects behavior. Thats why simulationists like myself are obsessed with getting the mechanics and Statistics just right (Check out the Mneme Variant Combat Rules). Because if I make a bunch of mechanic decisions and players behave differently from my understanding of the world - I should "are we modeling the reality where I live in or the reality of the Setting" 

So in OSR Darts are statistically more effective and if you follow history then you will notice biomechanical patterns of 4,000-6,000 years of human warfare (4000BCE to 1800 CE) our world has a different set of Principles (Like Spears, Shields, and Bows being very dominant for a very long time).  Humans have such a finite range of motion, strength, and in large numbers - averages and minimums that certain patterns tend to form.   

I don't want to make darts suck (Check out the Mneme Variant Combat Rules) - but remember the decisions of why Thiefs became rogues and Rogues because what they are NOW was because of all the experience people had with thieves and the corrections they applied. The Rogue and the Thief are different - backstab became sneak-attack and movement rules were rationalized in 3e. 

What does the world builder want? (check out https://www.reddit.com/r/worldbuilding/ ) What does he or she want to reflect? 

This reminds me of my work - when I analyze why people use spreadsheets without functions, why there are really odd behaviors (hiding the fact time logs are done manually, problems arise in certain processes, etc...) in our Plant and Operations. I'm the guy who is in charge of fixing these things and I owe it to TRPGs that I am very much aware and focused about these matters. To the point that I can discuss the system objectives and solutions. 

Do we discard that? Do we discard 20+ years of changes 3E began? 

What do you want? (As the world builder).

GURPS did a wonderful job for spears - Indian and Chinese history buffs would have compliments to say about how much spears mattered more in their culture than swords. LuBu and note that Longsword making was in chines culture hundreds of years earlier compared to most cultures.  

Darts are Marginally better to bows. 1.69 damage/turn as compared to Bows with 1.57 and Swords with 1./turn (against AC15-20). but bows and darts are 50% or relatively 30% better than 1d8 weapons.  It really depends. what do you want? 

So when looking at the OSR Statistics - its effed up. Particularly the survival rates of characters, and humans. I think given how things work, it gives me a statistical and demographic impression that humans should be extinct. Again we had 20+ years of 3e making D&D more open source with the open gaming license (and you know I'm an Open Source advocate and find Open source the place where most Innovation comes form these days -excluding the most expensive types of R&D). If you compare to AC in 3e - OSR is weird. remember its more inconvenient for Players to LOSE characters than the GM to Lose Mooks. 

Given how bad survival rates for PCS, if Darts increases that - then the race that first figures that out will overwhelm the other races 😅😅😅

Darts vs Bows vs 1d8 weapons

it kinda makes sense they raised the damage die, making swords 1d10, 2d6, 1d12 and 3d6 in 3e. if Bows are 1d6 then it made sense to raise the damage of melee weapons. Of course they kept the sacred cows with Rapid Attack for Bows.

Here is my link to Anydice based on  Don't stop Thinking

https://anydice.com/program/2b74b 

Basically: The Mean puts the darts as the most damage when there are no modifiers. 

Above Don't stop Thinking of how the anydice link works. 

You can see Darts have the highest mean average damage. So in 30 or so rounds of combat (90 darts thrown) the average damage will lean towards this. You will also notice the SIGNIFICANT bump  in odds. Given AC15 targets (which most goblins in OSR is) you can see that Darts with 3 attacks increases the survival likeliness. 

Left values is the potential damage per round. 

\**** Damage calculator ****\

function: attackroll ROLL:n vs AC:n {

 if ROLL >= CRITROLL { result: CRITDAMAGE } 

 if ROLL = 1 { result: 0 }

 if ROLL + PROFICIENCY + ATTACKMOD + ACCBONUS >= AC { result: DAMAGE }

 result: 0

}

\looped against enemy AC from 15-20\

ENEMYAC: d{15..20}

ATTACKMOD: 0

DMGBONUS: 0

PROFICIENCY: 0

ACCBONUS: 0

CRITROLL: 20

ATTACKTIMES: 1

DAMAGE: 1d8 + ATTACKMOD + DMGBONUS

CRITDAMAGE: 2d8 + ATTACKMOD + DMGBONUS

output ATTACKTIMESd[attackroll d20 vs ENEMYAC] named "1d8 Melee with No Modifier"

ATTACKMOD: 0

DMGBONUS: 0

PROFICIENCY: 0

ACCBONUS: 0

CRITROLL: 20

ATTACKTIMES: 2

DAMAGE: 1d6 + ATTACKMOD + DMGBONUS

CRITDAMAGE: 2d6 + ATTACKMOD + DMGBONUS

output ATTACKTIMESd[attackroll d20 vs ENEMYAC] named "Bow with No Modifier"

ATTACKMOD: 0

DMGBONUS: 0

PROFICIENCY: 0

ACCBONUS: 0

CRITROLL: 20

ATTACKTIMES: 3

DAMAGE: 1d4 + ATTACKMOD + DMGBONUS

CRITDAMAGE: 2d4 + ATTACKMOD + DMGBONUS

output ATTACKTIMESd[attackroll d20 vs ENEMYAC] named "Dart with No Modifier"